Is the US dollar really under threat – or is this just another headline that doesn’t translate to the real world?
There’s a familiar buzz doing the rounds again: the BRICS nations – that growing club of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (now joined by Iran, Egypt, and the UAE) – are talking about breaking away from the global financial status quo.
Depending on which post, headline or pundit you’re reading, they’re either launching a new gold-backed super-currency to rival the dollar, or simply laying the groundwork for something less dramatic but equally strategic.
So what’s actually happening?
More importantly, should your business care?
The short answer: yes.
But not for the reasons most people think.
So, what’s actually happening?
At the most recent BRICS summit in September 2025, the long-rumoured “BRICS currency” did not make its debut – no gold coin, no digital currency, not even a formal name.
However, what we did get was a clear shift in tone.
Instead of pushing for a single shared currency, the BRICS bloc doubled down on something far more actionable: settling trade in local currencies and building alternative infrastructure to bypass SWIFT and other USD-dominated systems.
Brazil continues pushing for real-denominated trade.
India has expanded INR settlement deals with the UAE and Russia.
China’s RMB already has traction across parts of Africa and Asia.
And Russia, largely cut off from Western systems, is practically forced to adopt alternatives.
It’s not one big move.
It’s lots of smaller ones, and taken together, they represent a clear trend: less reliance on the US dollar and more emphasis on regional and local FX pairings.
No new currency, then – but a serious attempt to reshape how money moves globally.
Why this matters – even without a shiny new coin
Even in the absence of a BRICS “euro-style” currency, the effect on FX markets is tangible.
Think of the global currency system as a carefully balanced mobile.
Touch just one side, and the whole thing shifts – subtly at first, then more dramatically as the balance adjusts.
Right now, what BRICS is doing isn’t knocking the dollar off its perch – but it is tugging on the wires.
For businesses that manage cash flows across borders, these movements can create real-world risks.
Let’s break that down.
Local currency trade isn’t theoretical – it’s already happening
This isn’t about ideas on a whiteboard.
BRICS countries are already making bilateral agreements to settle trade in their own currencies.
India and the UAE signed a deal to enable direct INR-AED transactions. China is encouraging oil purchases in yuan. Brazil and Argentina had brief discussions about a Latin American settlement system.
Even African nations are exploring localised FX solutions through the BRICS Development Bank.
These aren’t perfect systems yet, but the trend is unmistakable: the US dollar is no longer the automatic default for large portions of global trade.
If you’re a business transacting across multiple markets, the playing field is shifting – and the rules around invoicing, risk, and timing are moving with it.
Market speculation creates volatility – even without policy changes
In FX, perception often moves faster than reality.
When markets anticipate a potential shift, such as a policy change, a new settlement mechanism, or a move away from the dollar, they begin adjusting. Hence, the old investment adage:
“It’s better to travel than arrive.”
Speculation alone can trigger price swings long before any official action occurs.
And those swings?
They impact your cash flow, your pricing, and your forward planning.
We’ve seen this play out in response to BRICS announcements. With movements in currencies like INR and CNY around trade settlement news, and risk-off flows into safe havens like CHF or JPY when geopolitical tensions rise.
Even if short-lived, this kind of volatility can erode margins, throw off forecasts, and complicate multi-market settlements.
For businesses with cross-border exposure, the cost of inaction often shows up faster than expected.
Fragmentation makes FX more complex – and fast
The world’s FX system used to run on a relatively narrow set of core pairings. USD/GBP. USD/EUR. USD/JPY.
Now?
It’s not uncommon for businesses to manage exposure across USD/ZAR, CNY/BRL, and INR/AED – often with less liquidity, less visibility, and more pricing friction.
The more fragmented the system becomes, the more work your treasury or finance team has to do to stay on top of it.
But that doesn’t mean things are getting worse. It just means they’re getting more complex.
And if your systems, partners, or advisers aren’t set up to help you manage that complexity, you’re going to feel it – in fees, delays, or lost opportunity.
Don’t wait for a headline to force a decision
It’s easy to dismiss this all as a slow-moving trend. And to some extent, it is.
The US dollar is still the dominant reserve currency. Most global commodities are still priced in USD.
The IMF isn’t going anywhere, and the global banking system isn’t flipping overnight.
But change doesn’t usually arrive with a red banner and fanfare. It sneaks in through the side door.
- In 2022, “dedollarisation” was a fringe topic.
- In 2023, it made a few headlines.
- By 2025, it’s part of treasury strategy meetings in any business moving money across BRICS or Global South economies.
We’ve seen clients caught off guard by sudden changes in settlement preferences.
A supplier that used to invoice in USD switches to CNY. A customer insists on local currency payment to avoid bank scrutiny.
Further afield, a cross-border deal becomes more expensive to hedge than anticipated.
These things used to be rare. Now they’re part of the normal landscape.
So what should you actually be doing?
This isn’t about crystal balls or market timing.
It’s about building resilience, so when the environment shifts, your FX strategy doesn’t break.
At BLK.FX, we’re advising clients to:
- Review their currency exposure regularly
- Expand their hedging toolbox (forwards, options, multi-currency setups)
- Talk to counterparties early about settlement preferences
- Price in flexibility, especially when entering new markets or renegotiating contracts
And above all: don’t treat BRICS headlines like background noise.
If your business touches these markets, the ripples will reach you eventually – even if you’re not seeing them yet.
The takeaway? This isn’t about a new currency. It’s about a new era.
Whether BRICS ever launches a shared currency is beside the point.
The world is moving toward a more multipolar financial system.
And the businesses that thrive will be the ones who move with it – not those who wait for it to become “official.”
If your FX strategy hasn’t changed in five years, it’s already out of date.
Let’s change that – before the next shift catches you off guard.
Talk to us at BLK.FX about building a smarter, more flexible FX setup.
One that works – whether the dollar stays king, or not.
